A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
